Showing posts with label US Dollar. Show all posts
Showing posts with label US Dollar. Show all posts

Thursday, October 24, 2013

We Can't Really Cut Government Spending and Survive, Can We?

Vince Hughley asked for my thoughts on this graphic.



The graphic seems to think that it is better to continue spending money we don't have instead of allowing the deficit to go down.  Keep in mind that allowing the deficit to go down does not mean that we are balancing the budget.  We are still going into debt, but not by as much.  It's like the $100 you save by putting a $900 stereo on your credit card instead of a $1,000 stereo.  You still added $900 to your debt, so you haven't really saved anything.

People have lost sight of the reason that the federal government needs money in the first place.  If you go back in time to the early days of this country, the federal government actually had very few responsibilities.

It was to provide national protection through the armed forces.  It was to facilitate trade between the states.  It was to facilitate international trade.  Our navy was to keep trade routes safe for our traders internationally.  Do you see a theme developing?

It was to provide a mail service that would facilitate communications and trade nationwide.

That's pretty much all our federal government was to do.

The government was restricted in how it could carry out its activities through the rights that were granted to the people and to the states through the Bill of Rights.  These rights were to ensure the security, sanctity and freedom of the American people.

Given this, how did we get to where we are now?

How is it that the federal government feels justified in spending 1/3 of our GDP on its own programs?

We did not even have an income tax for our first one hundred years of existence as a nation.  Did you know that?  We had tariffs, duties and excise taxes on imports, and we had a national sales tax.  That was it.

The government did not give to charity.  Charities received their money via donations, and the government allowed them to help the needy.  Most educational services pre-Lincoln were provided by local churches or mothers who would teach their children at home.  Most women did not work outside the home at that time.

What changed?

Well, in 1913, we gave control of our money to a privately held corporation called the "Federal Reserve."  The Fed, in order to be able to act efficiently, does its actions in secret, without any oversight from the Congress, the president or anyone else.  One hundred years later, our nation is trillions of dollars in debt, and the Fed cannot account for over $16 trillion of money in circulation.

In the 1930s, in an effort to save people who were not prepared for the Great Depression, FDR signed a bill into law that created Social Security and Medicare.  This was a Ponzi scheme that has ultimately led to embezzlement by the federal government of these funds and creative accounting that uses the balances in these funds to show the deficit as being smaller than it is.  The system currently has about $90 trillion of future benefits owed that will not have any funds when these payments are due.

The government eventually converted the postal service to an independent organization instead of a government department.  It is the third largest employer in the nation behind 1) The Federal Government (surprise!) and 2) Wal-Mart.

The government decided that it had to tax incomes, which the US Constitution specifically forbade.  The Sixteenth Amendment passed in 1913, which you may recall was the same year that the Federal Reserve was created.  THIS WAS NOT A COINCIDENCE.

OK, so back to the question of cutting government spending.

Right now, whether you like it or not, all decisions about national politics are made by bankers.  They fund the elections, so they own the politicians.  The run the Federal Reserve, so they control ALL of the money in America.  If you don't believe me, remove any denomination of US currency from your wallet and see to whom it belongs.

If you look at any current bill, you will see that it is labelled as a "Federal Reserve Note."  Have you ever thought about what that means?

It is a note.  A note is a promise to pay (think Promissory Note).  The money you hold is not money at all!  It is simply a promise by someone else to pay a fictitious amount in exchange for the bill.  Nothing backs the currency.  It only has value, because people agree to use it in trade.

For many years, our nation issued gold and silver certificates.  You could convert the currency on a 1:1 basis for gold or silver.  In 1933, FDR took us off the gold standard.

FDR did something unique.  He made it illegal to own gold.  If you owned gold (other than jewelry), you were REQUIRED to sell it to the government at a price the government set.  He bought all the gold held by Americans.  He then raised the price of gold by 20%, which devalued the currency by 25%.  Nice way to start, eh?

In 1971, Nixon stopped allowing US Dollars to be converted to gold.  At that time, the valuation of an ounce of gold was fixed at $35.  Spot price as of this moment is $1,338 per ounce.  Since 1971, the USD has lost 97.38% of its 1971 value.

Now, why would anyone want to allow this to happen?  Well, follow the money.

Who owns the most gold in the US?  The Federal Reserve.  Who would benefit most from an increase in the price of gold?  The Federal Reserve.  Who killed JFK?  You get the picture.

Now, back to taxes.

Since the federal government mismanages everything it touches, those in Congress over the past 125 years have decided that the federal government should be as involved in everyone's lives as possible.

There are two ways to accomplish this.  Either, make people dependent on the government or make people give everything they own to the government.

Making people dependent on government is not hard.  Government Employment, Welfare, Food Stamps, Section 8 Housing, Health Care, etc. can accomplish that.

Making people give everything they own to the government is harder.  You have to raise taxes.  You can only raise taxes without riots if you act like you are giving something back (Entitlements, Obamacare, etc.).

This graphic illustrates that:

1.  People go HUNGRY (Means no more food stamps)
2.  People lose HEALTH CARE (Funny, I thought that the reason we need Obamacare is because people don't have health care.  Actually, they are referring to a loss of free Medicare.)
3.  People LOSE THEIR JOBS (Teachers, police and safety inspectors are mostly employed by state governments, local governments and school districts.  Most of these are not federal jobs and are not directly affected by a lower federal tax base.)
4.  Roads and bridges fall into disrepair (Again, only federal highway projects would be affected by this, but it is more a matter of priorities.  The money we spent in Iraq and Afghanistan to build schools, highways and bridges could have been spent here instead.)
5.  Children receive FEWER educational opportunities (Do you really think we are doing a good job in this area now?  You must be nuts!)

The one point that makes sense is that THE DEFICIT GOES DOWN.

If your family is deeply in debt and you want to get out of debt, the fastest way to do that is to cut spending and do without some of the luxuries that you enjoy.  People forget how much of their life is spent on luxuries. The following are luxuries:

1.  TV
2.  Telephone
3.  Personal transportation (car, motorcycle, boat, etc.)
4.  Fancy clothes
5.  Washer/Dryer
6.  Air conditioning
7.  Electricity
8.  Running water

You might take issue with #7 and #8, but much of the world survives without that.  I could make a longer list, but you get the idea.  Anything beyond shelter and food can be considered a luxury.  Your wife might not be happy, but some might consider her a luxury also.  Just kidding!

Now that over 50% of Americans depend on government in some way or another (soon to be 100% with Obamacare), and the rest are forced to pay for everyone else, it is only a matter of time before the payers surrender and join the ranks of the payees.

The reality is this.  If we could get the federal government's hand out of the pockets of hundreds of millions of Americans and American businesses, and replace the current tax system with the FAIR TAX (The flat tax is regressive.  The FAIR TAX promotes savings and investment, which we need in this country), employment would increase, the tax base would grow, fewer people would need outside assistance, and our country would put itself in a position to build back into being a world leader.

This will probably be the last time Vince asks for my thoughts on a subject.  :-)

Ask anytime...

Thursday, May 1, 2008

Special Edition: Philippine Peso vs. Dollar Valuation

I posted this information in response to a question posted in Yahoo!Groups, "LivingInThePhilippines3." I thought that it would be appropriate to share here. Enjoy!

The peso and dollar should fluctuate within a narrow range for the rest of this year, at least through the time of the American election. The worst of the sub-prime mess is over now, but corrections continue in the real estate sector. Housing prices bottomed-out in many traditional markets in November, but other areas are still seeing fallout. The main reasons that real estate is still falling in certain areas, and will have a long climb back in others, is due to the high vacancy rates of homes (bank owned), tightly enforced requirements on borrowing (which are starting to ease), and a general credit crunch that is now shifting towards consumer borrowing. Average credit scores of Americans are dropping due to foreclosures, short sales, and Deeds in Lieu thereof, as well as people renegotiating their upside-down mortgages.

Higher interest rates, higher fuel prices, and an increase in unemployment are causing more credit card defaults as well, while banks are trying to raise interest rates into the stratosphere on credit cards (up to 30% or more)! Bankruptcies are also on the rise, and this trend will continue into the foreseeable future. Some banks will still incur multi-million or multi-billion dollar write downs (B of A/Countrywide $2B for renegotiations), and a couple of major bank mergers are on the horizon yet. All of this will eventually settle down, and we will have an American real estate economy again. This total recovery will take at least two years to get back to the price levels of 2006, but five to seven years to get back on track to long-term average year-on-year returns. Real estate is still a great investment if you are a buy-and-hold investor with enough liquidity and good enough credit to qualify for a mortgage.

The rental market prices are increasing, due to high numbers of recently-displaced families, so CAP rates in the multi-family housing sector remain low (gradual increases in CAP rate, but good increases in cash flow), in spite of the recent fall-out in values. Commercial credit is still surprisingly easy to attain for real estate or unsecured obligations.

In addition to the sub-prime mess, the peso has enjoyed certain benefits over the past couple of years. First, the economy has improved, so rather than the cheese heads in government taking all the money for themselves, they have chosen to try to balance the budget. This still doesn't help that poor family of 16 on the corner who can't afford rice, but the country looks better (on paper) to the rest of the world.

The improved credit rates achieved by the Philippine government have allowed fewer pesos to go farther with regard to reducing debt. The BSP's (Bankgo Sentral Philippines - Central Bank of the Philippines) policy of hoarding dollars has created an effective, although limited, hedge against fluctuations, but has put the country in the position of having to reverse itself in order to reduce inflation. In other words, they over-bought dollars, and inflation is already starting to affect the average Filipino. Over the past two years, only we (who get paid in dollars) have noticed the double-digit inflation rate, as peso-denominated prices didn't change, but our purchasing power dropped like a rock!

The Federal Reserve Boards' actions in keeping interest rates low (2.00% as of today - Don't expect it to fall any farther), as a hedge against both inflation and a total meltdown in financial markets, has fueled an exodus from investments in the dollar, as higher interest rates are to be found elsewhere. Just look in the newspaper at the difference in interest rates offered by banks for the dollar vs. the peso. European banks give higher rates for Euros as well. If the demand for dollars was higher (usually meaning a lower trade deficit and/or more foreign investment streaming into the country), interest rates would have to rise, and the currency would do the same. (Side Note: Local banks have now adjusted CD rates on peso and dollar accounts to about the same rate, whereas the peso paid much more for the past few years This is an indication that the dollar and peso are expected to hold steady for the next year.)

If not for the sub-prime mess, we probably would have seen the dollar recover to at least 45:1 by now, with a target of 50:1 possible within the next 12-18 months. As it stands, 42:1 or 43:1 is the best it is likely to get by the year-end, unless some major breakthrough happens in the world. Unfortunately, big news is usually negative, so don't hold your breath for this one. The good news is that the dollar is unlikely to fall any lower against the peso, as Malacanang is not going to be able to balance the budget this year. Rising gas prices, a worldwide food shortage, and tightening of financial markets have served to rein in the currency exchange markets, and reduce volatility. In English, this means the exchange markets should be pretty stable the rest of the year, and trade in a narrow range.

Barring any terrorist attacks on US soil, the nuking of any rogue state, global warming putting us under water, or the Lord returning to take over, the exchange rate should be within 41:1 to 43:1 the rest of the year. In sum, a peso:dollar rate of worse than 40:1 is highly unlikely, as is 45:1, in the next six months. We could get to 45:1 by this time next year, if the world economy improves and fuel prices drop (they actually should), but don't expect to see a ratio of 50:1 or better anytime soon (perhaps never).

If you are looking for ways to increase the total return to your portfolio without taking on aggressive risk, please contact me regarding solid investment opportunities in the Philippines.

Received this the other day from a client. (Thank you, Samantha!) I think you might enjoy it:

I had a bunch of Canadian dollars I needed to exchange, so I went to the currency exchange window at the local bank. Just one lady in front of me, an Asian lady who was trying to exchange yen for dollars and she was a little irritated.

She asked the teller, "Why it change? Yesterday, I get two hunat dolla fo yen. Today I get hunat eighty? Why it change?"

The teller shrugged his shoulders and said, "Fluctuations". The Asian lady said, "Fluc you white people, too"